The Horserace Blog will give you fresh polling crack. It strongly suggests, quite the opposite of Slate's meta-analysis, that the race is all but decided for Bush.

Well, they can't both be wrong! Or can they?

Back in the land of non-crazy theories, Kausfiles has been outputting a steady stream of useful links and data, including a hit job on his own magazine's Election Scorecard (Wisconsin all but locked up for Bush, despite what ES thinks), an apparent correction of Hitchens' endorsement (apparently he meant his entry into Slate Votes as a Bush endorsement, but then I already knew that. (That's the secret to predictions: once reality conforms to your prediction, however tenuously, declare victory and get out of there).

This is not a political weblog! What am I doing? Okay, um, I got the parts for the Trail-a-bike, and couldn't resist $20 worth of nice new bike gloves at the same time. I have some long-reach brakes on order (those are great for upgrading old bikes), and so far the trick-or-treaters haven't blown up our car. I was fairly impressed by the costumes this year, including a strangely elaborate white thing that was probably a ghost, but which The Lovely One thinks was a marshmallow. We've already eaten the last of the candy.